Billy Kasis: In the first phase, Russia is preparing a new offensive army of 300.000 soldiers.

Map Donetsk, Lugansk east Ukraine

 Wednesday, September 21, 2023. After a postponement of the speech this morning local Moscow time, the president of Russia for 20 years, 

Vladimir Putin announced the transformation of the special operation into a prelude to a major offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Otto von Bismarck, 1815-1898, German Chancellor


-"The secret of international politics is to make a good deal with Russia."

Otto von Bismarck, 1815-1898, German Chancellor


Russia has solid Russian populations in both Transnistria (next to Moldova) and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.


Also, the Baltic countries host a sizeable Russian population.

Russia cannot fight with conventional weapons alone, and for a long time, simultaneously in the vast fields of Europe and Asia.

At the same time, several countries to its south are unstable or at war, with unpredictable consequences for the state's cohesion and Moscow's power.


Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, and the new source of ignition, Georgia, Syria, and Turkey, are ready for war.

Kyrgyzstan – Tajikistan War September 2022


At the same time, NATO is reaching the borders of Russia! Through Finland.


And Romania, the NATO countries in the former Yugoslavia, and Bulgaria are arming themselves.


Putin asked for and received a short period of additional time (from Moscow's deep state) to end the military operation in Eastern and Southern Ukraine since it is bothering China and India since the problems, especially in the Economy and inflation, directly affect them.


Today, Wednesday, September 21, is an important day!


September was again the month of the official start of the Second World War.


Chronology.


On September 1, 1939, Germany launched a surprise attack on Poland.

Hitler, On September 1, 1939, Germany launched a surprise attack on Poland.

The German Army, applying new and innovative tactics that included the combined action of aviation, and armored and motorized forces, surprised the Poles and occupied the country quickly.


 This tactic became known as the "Lightning War" (Blitzkrieg).


 On September 17, the Soviet Union invaded Poland from the east and occupied the rest of the country (according to the secret protocol of the German-Soviet pact).


Warsaw was bombarded relentlessly by the Luftwaffe and German artillery.


It finally surrendered on September 27, while on October 8, Poland annexed large areas of the country to the Reich.


 A few days later, In Poland formed the General Government.


Despite the stubborn defense of its army and local successes, Poland had been occupied and dismembered.


- "Russia has two generals it can trust: Generals January and February." Tsar Nicholas I, 1796-1855, was the Russian ruler


Local war becomes Global.


England and France were forced to declare war on Germany without mobilizing all their forces for full involvement.

Britain declares war old newspaper


 There followed a period known as the "Drôle de Guerre" (Drôle de Guerre) because, despite the declaration of war, a portion of the belligerents still did not participate in a general war against Germany.


From September 3, 1939 (Declaration of war by Great Britain on Germany) until May 10, 1940 (The beginning of the German offensive on the Western Front), minimal ground or air hostilities took place. 


There is only mobility in naval operations. Consequently, the German Army reorganized on the Western Front and concentrated most of its strength there.


On November 30, the USSR declared war on Finland after refusing to accept Soviet troops such as those stationed in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.


The Finns put up strong resistance and inflicted heavy losses on the Soviets.


 The Treaty of Moscow officially ended the war on March 13, 1940, with the USSR receiving significant territorial compensation.


- "I think the only reason my wife and I decided to have children is the same reason Napoleon invaded Russia: it seemed like a good idea at the time." Bill Cosby, 1937-, American comedian.


Are we now, as then, in that distant September, 

on the brink of the start of a World War?


We read from international news agencies.


Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a partial mobilization in Russia on Wednesday, citing NATO threats of Russia's defeat on the battlefield and the subsequent destruction of its culture, civilization, and people. The Russian leader announced that only citizens trained in the main military forces would be called up – and now they will also receive additional training.


He also announced, as expected, the holding of referendums in the Russian-occupied territories regions of Ukraine, i.e., Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and part of Zaporizhzhya, with the question of union with the Russian Federation: "We support these people. We will do everything to protect the smooth process of the referendums."


It is now legitimized for Russia to defend its territory in case the Ukrainians attack these areas!


In the beginning, the president of Russia condemned the atrocities of the Ukrainians and the support of the West to the NEONAZIs of Kyiv: "They are hitting schools and hospitals; they also hit civilians."


The Russian leader claimed that Washington was pressuring Kyiv to transfer hostilities to the territory of the Russian Federation while adding that the West used nuclear blackmail without elaborating.


Partial recruitment means that:


1. About 1,000,000 to 4,000,000 men will be called to arms


2. the pace of the defense industry will change, as the factories will not operate on an 8-hour basis but on a 24-hour basis with three eight-hour shifts.

 Also, the entire defense industry will produce based on the needs of the armed forces of the Russian Federation.


3. Russian Army will announce an unknown but significant number of permanent military positions.


4. The whole expenditure is not made for the few territories of the provinces of Kherson Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, and Donetsk, but the Front now opens over Finland to Turkey.


As it goes without saying, all the countries neighboring Russia will proceed with the recruitment.


According to the decree, the level of remuneration of Russian citizens called up for military service under mobilization in the Russian Armed Forces will be equal to that of service members serving under contract in the Russian Armed Forces.


Note: In wartime, up to 10% of the population may go to fight immediately (in general and not only in Russia).


If this number is accurate, there are roughly 150 million in Russia, so, with 10%, it quickly gathers 15 million Army with weapon systems that Russia still needs to present on the war front with the West.


Suppose China does general conscription! The numbers alone are staggering.


October 2022 will be a month with an exciting history.


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Billy Kasis, blog writer 2022

Update 

Update 14:00 GMT 


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